Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:
Search for the best price: A common mistake is to assume that the price on a specific futures wager position will be the same at every sportsbook. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, you’ll often see a greater degree of difference between futures prices from book to book than any other form of bet. This is because that books aren’t as worried about what price other outfits are offering as they are about keeping their own financial position balanced.
Don’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their ‘true odds’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are ‘under the radar’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these ‘risks’.
In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.
Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he’d essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It’s never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.
Don’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn’t make it a good value. If you’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.
Wagering value is just as important at the bottom of the barrel as it is at the top. Just because you’re getting a huge potential payback on a big dog doesn’t make it a good value. Make sure that the payback you’re getting presents an overlay situation–even on a huge underdog.
Don’t waste your money on ridiculous prop bets: Occasionally sports books offer ridiculous bets to get press or to be funny. For example, a book once offered odds on Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher and Bruce Willis all hopping into bed together and releasing a video tape of the proceedings. You’d no doubt get a huge payback were this to happen, but the ‘true odds’ of such an event transpiring far exceeded even a big potential payback.
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.
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