There’s not much ‘middle ground’ when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the ‘boiler room’ sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there’s no more sure thing than preseason football. There’s a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.
First, let’s examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don’t count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That’s not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.
The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the “better” team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the “better” teams have not only more ‘marquee names’ to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they’ll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They’ll have no need to “create a winning attitude”, nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the “better” teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.
Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A “lesser” team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they’ll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games”whether or not they count in the standings”are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won’t have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league’s elite can mean a lot more.
Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.
The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don’t count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won’t have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team’s pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams’ beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of “real” news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach’s goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they’re more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play “on”, but teams with priorities other than winning to play “against”.
In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.
Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer specializing in travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, flower arranging and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.
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